Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6F 0x6f47…08f6 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$65 (+0%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate51%42W / 41L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$35
14 days−$54
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$51
other 26% −$6
politics 13% −$3
economics 8% +$2
finance 2% +$4
sports 1% +$9
tech 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 31 +2.0% -7.7% 39% 3% -9.0%
≤90d 42 +49.1% +34.9% 40% 5% -9.2%
all 83 +27.7% +15.5% 51% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.5% 8% -9.1%
10% +4.5% 5% -17.8%
15% -5.6% 5% -25.8%
20% -14.9% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses42 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage489d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $178 $178 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $195 −$20 -10%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $125 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $124 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $207 −$6 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $232 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $235 −$3 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $227 +$1 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $233 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $74 −$7 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $239 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $240 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $240 −$22 -9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $71 +$3 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $646 −$2 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $66 +$6 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $239 −$4 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $255 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $512 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $257 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $182 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $215 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $631 +$43 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $422 −$6 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $155 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $201 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $80 +$59 +73%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $81 +$4 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $371 −$6 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $313 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $54 +$10 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $124 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $395 +$1 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,057 +$1 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,337 −$3 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $1,057 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $961 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $505 −$4 -1%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 09 $2 $0 +5%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 11 $2 $0 -13%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 09 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $22 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $3 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $140 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $175 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 58¢ $195 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $37 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $30 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $21 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $125 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $124 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $75 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $73 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $53 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $207 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $36 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.56 · official $177.56 (match) · 385 history records