Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f44…073c crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate61%43W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$10
sports 22% −$2
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 71 +1.0% -8.6% 61% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.3% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses43 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage549d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chainlink reach $16 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? May 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amazon reach $296 in March? Apr 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of November? Dec 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Opensea launch a token by October 31? Nov 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 18 $18 +$13 +71%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 02 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $925 −$1 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $942 −$1 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +1%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 17 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21 Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will ETHBTC be more than .033 on February 7? Feb 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $3 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? Jan 21 $1 $0 +5%
Solana above $190 on January 17? Jan 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Biden resign before inauguration? Jan 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will LA wildfires burn 60-70k acres by Sunday? Jan 14 $2 $0 +0%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $1 $0 +1%
Broncos vs. Bengals Dec 26 $14 $0 -3%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 26 $12 $0 -2%
Louisiana vs. TCU Dec 26 $11 $0 -0%
Oilers vs. Kings Dec 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-26? Dec 26 $23 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Jazz Dec 26 $10 $0 -0%
Kraken vs. Canucks Dec 25 $12 $0 +2%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Dec 25 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chainlink reach $16 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 65d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 87d
Will Amazon reach $296 in March? BUY No 100¢ $28 91d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $6 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 150d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of November? BUY No 100¢ $31 208d
Will Opensea launch a token by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $31 249d
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY No 58¢ $18 282d
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $2 301d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 99¢ $3 332d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 363d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 395d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 395d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 424d
XRP all time high in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 424d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? BUY No 99¢ $2 432d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $924 445d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $925 445d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $935 445d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $936 445d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $934 446d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $935 446d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $941 446d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $942 446d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $930 446d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $931 446d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $2 456d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.88 · official $27.88 (match) · 195 history records