Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:54:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6F
0x6f44…ecfc
other · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$17,548 -37%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20,921 · open +$3,624
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$13,047
Realized−$20,921
Unrealized+$3,624
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Open positions56
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage39d
Avg bet$3,407
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 56 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$13,186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 30¢ $173 $1,349 +$1,176 (+679%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 28¢ $173 $1,239 +$1,065 (+615%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ $172 $829 +$657 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ $172 $784 +$612 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ $173 $781 +$608 (+351%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ $173 $743 +$570 (+329%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 16¢ $172 $695 +$522 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 15¢ $173 $676 +$502 (+290%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 14¢ $173 $653 +$480 (+277%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 13¢ $173 $572 +$399 (+230%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ $173 $518 +$345 (+199%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 11¢ $173 $516 +$343 (+198%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 10¢ $172 $426 +$253 (+147%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 10¢ $172 $426 +$253 (+147%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $172 $315 +$143 (+83%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $173 $293 +$120 (+69%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes $173 $293 +$120 (+69%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $173 $268 +$95 (+55%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $172 $246 +$74 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $173 $203 +$29 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $172 $199 +$27 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $172 $141 −$31 (-18%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $173 $106 −$67 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $172 $105 −$67 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $172 $96 −$76 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 23 $3,180 −$3,180 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $3,335 −$3,335 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $3,335 −$3,335 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 17 $3,335 −$3,335 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 12 $2,335 −$2,335 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 06 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 06 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$17,297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $5 9h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,477 19h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $3 23h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $4 26h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $0 26h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $3 27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $2 27h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $4 32h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $5 34h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $4 35h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $1 38h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,500 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,046.56 · official $13,047.91 (match) · 441 history records