Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f40…bd86 sports 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 197d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,044 (-3%) realized −$3,044 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate53%136W / 122L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$2,163
14 days+$2,163
30 days+$2,163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$746
sports 33% −$606
world 1% −$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 42% 17% +0.2%
≤30d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 42% 17% +0.2%
≤90d 22 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 14% -6.1%
all 258 +1.0% -8.6% 53% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -10.9%
10% -17.3% 3% -19.4%
15% -25.3% 2% -27.2%
20% -32.6% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$61 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$376
Realized−$3,044
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses136 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions4
Markets (closed)258 / 262
History coverage198d ⚠
Avg bet$417
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $332 $354 +$22 (+7%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Natus Vincere 69¢ 69¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 67¢ 68¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner HULIGANI 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner HULIGANI 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 27 $0 $0 -3%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $233 +$48 +20%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $6 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $6 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $6 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7,251 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,480 +$40 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,600 +$40 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,520 +$40 +1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $2,950 +$2,050 +70%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $1,062 +$266 +25%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2,539 +$31 +1%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 19 $2,360 $0 -0%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,800 +$35 +1%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,016 +$10 +1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,030 +$35 +2%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO5) - Esports World Cup North America Qua Apr 29 $2,342 +$13 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 28 $1,227 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 21 $380 $0 -0%
Sunderland AFC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $10 $0 +0%
US Lecce vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 Feb 21 $280 −$16 -6%
US Lecce vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $375 −$3 -1%
Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $340 +$10 +3%
Chelsea FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 21 $290 $0 -0%
Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $237 $0 +0%
Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $560 +$10 +2%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $690 −$30 -4%
Brentford FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $61 $0 +0%
FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $121 +$2 +2%
US Lecce vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $530 $0 -0%
West Ham United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $37 $0 -0%
RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $679 −$31 -4%
RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $460 −$55 -12%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $340 $0 -0%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $530 +$5 +1%
1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $360 +$10 +3%
1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $320 $0 -0%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $690 +$10 +1%
Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $241 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $470 $0 -0%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $3 $0 -0%
Juventus FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $51 $0 -0%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Feb 20 $125 $0 +0%
Athletic Club vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 Feb 20 $567 +$15 +3%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5 Feb 20 $395 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 16¢ $0 12m
Will DR Congo finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 16¢ $0 16m
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY No 16¢ $0 51m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $4 59m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 30¢ $2 59m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $4 59m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 32¢ $2 1h
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 80¢ $139 1h
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 77¢ $194 5h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $124 16h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $109 16h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 99¢ $6 17h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 17h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 18h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 18h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 19h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 19h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 19h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $28 19h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 19h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 19h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 19h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 99¢ $6 19h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 19h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 19h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 35¢ $2 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $6 20h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 64¢ $4 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $6 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $376.27 · official $376.27 (match) · 3500 history records