Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6F 0x6f40…eb64 other 273 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$50,015 (+14%) realized +$38,183 · open +$11,832
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%102W / 151L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$1,334per market
Trades / day35.2pace
Fees−$738est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$49,886now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$315
7 days−$62
14 days+$2,051
30 days+$16,049
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$6,040
world 36% +$11,382
politics 15% +$24,853
sports 10% +$729
finance 1% +$1,173
crypto 0% +$712
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -17.1% -25.0% 42% 33% -10.1%
≤30d 54 +4.3% -5.7% 35% 33% +15.2%
≤90d 253 +4.8% -5.2% 40% 38% -3.5%
all 253 +4.8% -5.2% 40% 38% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 38% -3.5%
10% -14.3% 32% -12.7%
15% ← realistic here -22.5% 30% -21.1%
20% -30.1% 26% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,050) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,074 vs −$587 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$49,886
Realized+$38,183
Unrealized+$11,832
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses102 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$738
Open positions19
Markets (closed)253 / 273
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$1,334
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $9,775 $11,414 +$1,639 (+17%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 41¢ 86¢ $4,802 $10,056 +$5,254 (+109%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 99¢ $4,914 $7,819 +$2,905 (+59%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $5,400 $6,075 +$675 (+12%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $4,507 $5,711 +$1,204 (+27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $4,000 $3,744 −$256 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $2,000 $2,567 +$567 (+28%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $944 $671 −$273 (-29%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 63¢ $600 $652 +$52 (+9%)
World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken? No 94¢ 96¢ $484 $495 +$12 (+2%)
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? No 44¢ 48¢ $223 $239 +$16 (+7%)
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $150 $161 +$11 (+7%)
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 52¢ 55¢ $102 $107 +$5 (+5%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 30¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+2%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 48¢ $21 $41 +$20 (+92%)
Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 9¢ 97¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+976%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 43¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $206 −$200 -97%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,027 +$16 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $1,111 +$203 +18%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $291 −$287 -99%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $2,023 +$1,203 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $226 −$220 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $512 +$1,761 +344%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,526 −$1,500 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $511 −$500 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $124 −$81 -65%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $206 +$204 +99%
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? Jun 15 $36 +$34 +95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $205 +$2,017 +982%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $205 +$665 +325%
Will Théo Hernandez be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $62 −$28 -46%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,026 +$1,483 +73%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 08 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $5,469 +$18,814 +344%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $509 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $753 +$854 +113%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 31 $205 −$146 -71%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $6,450 +$1,069 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 31 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 31 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 31 $510 −$510 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 31 $512 −$512 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 31 $718 −$718 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 31 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $4,047 −$4,047 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 30 $200 +$146 +73%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $24 −$3 -14%
Will AS Saint-Etienne achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for th May 30 $1,518 +$1,012 +67%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $1,016 +$1,158 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $308 −$195 -63%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $623 −$40 -6%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 26 $1,348 −$150 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $255 5h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $764 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $213 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 12¢ $830 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $256 25h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1,314 27h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 27h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 85¢ $9,775 33h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a dr BUY 20¢ $205 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $1,022 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $226 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2,051 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2,051 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 7d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $1,011 7d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $43 7d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $204 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $409 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 7d
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,054 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49,886.44 · official $49,885.53 (match) · 3500 history records