Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f40…163a politics 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$175 (-0%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate25%35W / 107L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$824per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$645now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$65
other 33% +$31
sports 15% −$129
culture 2% −$2
economics 2% −$2
world 1% −$11
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -16.8% -24.8% 8% 1% -11.0%
all 142 -3.9% -13.1% 25% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 7% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 7% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 7% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,111) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$13 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$645
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses35 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage147d
Avg bet$824
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $645 $645 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $2,177 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $271 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,525 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $2,211 −$4 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,207 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,981 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,251 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,106 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3,828 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,968 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,795 −$3 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $263 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $494 +$1 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $308 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $424 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $617 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $686 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,190 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $3,045 −$4 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,982 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,900 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,066 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 02 $230 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control May 02 $240 +$1 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $4,051 −$4 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $1,889 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $3,189 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,111 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $296 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $297 3h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 6h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 7h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $204 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $204 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $271 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $645 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,025 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,027 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,019 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,021 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,064 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,066 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,110 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,112 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,008 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,010 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,073 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,075 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,104 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,106 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $935 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $936 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,036 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,038 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $915 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $645.27 · official $645.27 (match) · 425 history records