trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 67% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 67% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 22 | -2.8% | -12.1% | 23% | 5% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.1% | 5% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -20.5% | 5% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -28.2% | 5% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -35.2% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 3? | Jun 15 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 29 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? | May 29 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 17? | Apr 23 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Apr 16 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 18 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Magic vs. Timberwolves | Mar 07 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 03 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Feb 27 | $398 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Feb 26 | $379 | $0 | -0% |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | Feb 26 | $12 | +$5 | +39% |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 26 | $723 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 26 | $372 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Feb 25 | $378 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 25 | $355 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 25 | $366 | $0 | -0% |
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 24 | $331 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 14 | $359 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Feb 13 | $323 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 13 | $328 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Feb 12 | $338 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 12 | $322 | $0 | -0% |