trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -23.7% | -30.9% | 20% | 20% | -71.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -23.7% | -30.9% | 20% | 20% | -71.0% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -23.7% | -30.9% | 20% | 20% | -71.0% |
| all | 5 | -23.7% | -30.9% | 20% | 20% | -71.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.9% | 20% | -71.0% |
| 10% | -37.6% | 20% | -73.8% |
| 15% | -43.6% | 20% | -76.3% |
| 20% | -49.1% | 20% | -78.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $2 | +$0 (+50%) |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+47%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? | Yes | 26¢ | 24¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-10%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? | Yes | 17¢ | 13¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-24%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $4 | $0 | -6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? | Jun 15 | $2 | +$3 | +168% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect | Jun 13 | $47 | −$38 | -80% |