Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6F
0x6f3c…d863
other · 136 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$65 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$81 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage103d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 135 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $62 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $293 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $147 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $58 −$1 -2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $68 −$4 -6%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $112 −$1 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $54 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $261 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $50 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 04 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $66 $0 -1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $48 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $50 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $214 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $544 $0 -0%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $50 +$1 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $108 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $332 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $94 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 27% −$30
sports 25% −$13
politics 23% −$17
crypto 8% −$11
economics 6% −$2
finance 4% −$2
world 3% −$1
culture 3% −$2
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $50 35m
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $61 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $62 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $66 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $66 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 19h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $46 20h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $46 27h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 27h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 32h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $56 32h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 40h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 95¢ $57 41h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $58 45h
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 46h
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $56 2d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $57 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $47 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $48 2d
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $43 2d
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $44 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $64 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $24 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 3d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 97¢ $62 3d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 65 -0.8% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 114 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 135 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.92 · official $49.92 (match) · 518 history records