Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f3b…d0b8 crypto 866 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,154 (-2%) realized −$5,200 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate87%751W / 114L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$295est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$690
7 days−$669
14 days−$829
30 days−$1,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$4,370
crypto 16% −$1,117
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -6.9% -15.8% 78% 20% -22.4%
≤30d 373 -2.1% -11.4% 88% 16% -13.1%
≤90d 732 -1.7% -11.0% 88% 14% -11.8%
all 865 -1.7% -11.0% 87% 15% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 15% -11.2%
10% -19.5% 8% -19.7%
15% -27.3% 5% -27.4%
20% -34.4% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$492 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$5,200
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses751 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$295
Open positions1
Markets (closed)865 / 866
History coverage117d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 865 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 70¢ 97¢ $120 $166 +$46 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $221 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $205 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $321 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $350 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $401 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $261 −$261 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $245 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $240 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$68 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $227 −$225 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $218 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $195 +$25 +13%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $40 −$33 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $163 +$25 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $22 −$21 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$135 +205%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $22 −$1 -4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $26 +$18 +70%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $18 +$14 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs MURASH GAMING (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group S Jun 15 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $77 +$9 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $221 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $205 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $321 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $350 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $401 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $301 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 70¢ $121 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $183 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $237 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $261 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $245 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $240 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $204 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $227 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $218 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $195 37h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Las Vegas Aces 12¢ $8 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $162 38h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 61¢ $40 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 5¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $21 45h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL ex-RUBY 59¢ $21 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $45 45h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $45 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $104 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.19 · official $166.19 (match) · 1918 history records