Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f3b…e7d6 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
other 32% −$4
politics 9% +$2
crypto 7% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 3% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.4% -7.3% 67% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -10.0%
all 43 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 2% -10.1%
10% -16.9% 2% -18.7%
15% -24.9% 2% -26.5%
20% -32.3% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage261d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 86¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $39 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 +9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $17 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $74 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $15 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $15 −$1 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Dec 30 $17 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? Oct 23 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 14 $2 +$2 +89%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Oct 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 06 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $35 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $21 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $18 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $39 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $39 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $15 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $15 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $13 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $17 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $12 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $24 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.91 · official $35.91 (match) · 130 history records