Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f3b…d803 crypto 1196 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$51 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1162W / 28L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$9
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$45
politics 3% −$13
finance 3% +$5
other 3% −$7
tech 1% −$8
sports 1% +$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 208 +1.4% -8.2% 99% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 935 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 1190 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1162 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1190 / 1196
History coverage111d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 No 94¢ 62¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic pr BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.02 · official $98.03 (match) · 3217 history records