Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f3a…e16a other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$33 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 101L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$639per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$758now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$15
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$51
other 34% +$571
sports 11% −$497
culture 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -13.6% -21.9% 9% 4% -10.8%
all 125 -6.9% -15.8% 19% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 10% -9.5%
10% -23.8% 10% -18.2%
15% -31.2% 6% -26.1%
20% -37.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$963) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$11 · ×4.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$758
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage124d
Avg bet$639
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $590 $590 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $167 $168 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 14 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,397 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,779 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $757 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $710 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,226 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 03 $362 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $235 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $2,441 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,070 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,815 −$3 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,813 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,435 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 02 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $942 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $947 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $3,329 −$4 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 29 $178 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $256 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? Apr 21 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? Apr 21 $222 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,328 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,598 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,829 −$3 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $647 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $486 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $419 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $978 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $590 1h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $410 2d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $411 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $845 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $846 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $849 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $850 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $848 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $849 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $846 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $847 4d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $749 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $750 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $756 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $757 11d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $415 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $415 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $709 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $710 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $773 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $775 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $658 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $659 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $234 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $234 17d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 18d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $222 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $235 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $235 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $757.89 · official $757.89 (match) · 401 history records