Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f37…cec9 world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$6
other 24% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 8% −$1
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.8% -12.0% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 9 -1.8% -11.2% 11% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 9 -1.8% -11.2% 11% 0% -11.4%
all 26 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage301d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $43 −$4 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $46 −$3 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $38 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $88 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 31 $9 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 06 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 01 $32 $0 +1%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Sep 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Sep 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Sep 24 $33 $0 -2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $35 $0 +1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 27 $3 $0 -4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 21 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $39 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $43 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $32 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $18 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $18 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $32 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $5 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $14 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $24 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $4 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $33 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $42 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $11 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $32 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $42 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.61 · official $35.61 (match) · 143 history records