Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f33…7b28 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23 (+11%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$58
other 4% +$3
sports 3% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +14.1% +3.2% 37% 37% -14.9%
≤30d 19 +14.1% +3.2% 37% 37% -14.9%
≤90d 19 +14.1% +3.2% 37% 37% -14.9%
all 19 +14.1% +3.2% 37% 37% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.2% 37% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -6.7% 32% -23.0%
15% -15.7% 21% -30.4%
20% -24.0% 16% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$45 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $29 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.96 (match) · 41 history records