Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6F 0x6f32…78ce crypto 623 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$3,569 (-5%) realized −$3,574 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate59%368W / 252L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$243est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$40
14 days−$4
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$821
sports 15% −$602
politics 12% −$190
other 12% −$738
crypto 7% +$69
finance 4% −$107
culture 3% −$63
tech 0% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -1.2% -10.6% 96% 2% -11.3%
≤30d 310 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 1% -9.1%
≤90d 509 -1.8% -11.2% 68% 1% -12.4%
all 620 -2.9% -12.2% 59% 1% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 1% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 0% -21.0%
15% -28.2% 0% -28.6%
20% -35.3% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$3,574
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses368 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$243
Open positions3
Markets (closed)620 / 623
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$116
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 620 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? No 93¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 26? No 95¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $30 +$2 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET Jun 25 $24 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $18 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $18 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 23? Jun 23 $49 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $6 $0 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $49 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? Jun 22 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 94¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $30 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $11 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 40h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $17 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $17 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $18 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.96 · official $77.96 (match) · 3500 history records