Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f30…1680 world 95 markets active 2d ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%33W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$46
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$10
other 29% +$2
politics 12% $0
sports 8% −$2
economics 5% +$1
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 12% -9.2%
≤30d 32 +3.5% -6.3% 44% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 85 +1.3% -8.3% 36% 7% -9.6%
all 92 +1.3% -8.4% 36% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses33 / 59
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage336d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $93 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $204 +$2 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $79 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $142 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $86 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +66%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $84 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $45 −$2 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $168 −$11 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $288 −$38 -13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $90 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $205 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $197 +$3 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $139 −$3 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $114 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $175 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $228 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $128 +$6 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $89 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $241 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $43 +$25 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $111 +$3 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $102 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $159 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $13 −$2 -14%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $229 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $102 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $5 −$2 -31%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 27 $108 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $127 −$2 -2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $198 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $337 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $199 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $103 +$1 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $110 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $111 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $203 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 19 $95 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 51¢ $93 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $93 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $30 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 45h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $59 47h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $18 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $10 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $6 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $64 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $79 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $76 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $81 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $76 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $81 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $81 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $89 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $72 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $78 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $53 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.01 · official $1.99 · 453 history records