Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f30…9ee9 crypto 778 markets active 3d ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,483 (-13%) realized −$2,483 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%366W / 412L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$265
14 days−$683
30 days−$2,446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,661
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -41.5% -47.1% 30% 30% -40.9%
≤30d 247 -52.1% -56.6% 21% 21% -27.6%
≤90d 582 -40.3% -46.0% 40% 26% -25.6%
all 778 -33.0% -39.4% 47% 37% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.4% 37% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -45.2% 13% -30.3%
15% -50.5% 9% -37.0%
20% -55.3% 8% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,483
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses366 / 412
Open positions0
Markets (closed)778 / 778
History coverage101d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 778 Trades
no open positions (410 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$98 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $132 −$128 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $130 −$126 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $130 +$120 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 06 $104 +$156 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$150 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 29 $376 −$363 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 29 $343 −$343 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 29 $302 −$292 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 29 $281 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 29 $253 −$249 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $219 −$212 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 29 $232 +$248 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 29 $217 −$210 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 29 $256 +$224 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 29 $282 +$258 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 29 $314 +$286 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 29 $282 −$280 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 29 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 29 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $161 −$156 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 29 $127 −$122 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 29 $32 +$28 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 29 $127 −$123 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 29 $158 +$142 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 29 $188 +$172 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 29 $186 +$174 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $146 −$142 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 29 $222 +$198 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 29 $188 −$187 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 29 $158 −$153 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 29 $186 +$174 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 29 $219 +$201 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 29 $250 +$230 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 29 $219 −$211 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 29 $189 −$183 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $42 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2707 history records