Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f2b…fe68 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%33W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$145
7 days−$145
14 days−$145
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$102
other 34% −$7
politics 3% +$1
sports 1% +$4
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -15.5% -23.5% 48% 48% -26.6%
≤30d 29 -15.5% -23.5% 48% 48% -26.6%
≤90d 41 -13.9% -22.1% 49% 49% -25.1%
all 57 -8.1% -16.8% 58% 37% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 37% -14.0%
10% -24.8% 35% -22.2%
15% -32.1% 32% -29.7%
20% -38.7% 32% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$26 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses33 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage548d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$21 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$18 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$23 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$21 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$20 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$25 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$25 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$13 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $57 −$55 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$27 +65%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +16%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $12 −$4 -30%
Raptors vs. Bulls Mar 22 $12 +$4 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 22 $50 +$35 +71%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 22 $50 +$36 +71%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 22 $50 +$50 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 22 $30 +$19 +64%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 22 $30 +$20 +68%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Feb 24 $15 $0 +2%
US tariff revenue up in Q3 2025? Dec 09 $17 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Dec 09 $106 +$102 +96%
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? Nov 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will DraftKings say "Prediction" during earnings call? Nov 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? Nov 06 $16 $0 +2%
Will Barcelona finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Sep 26 $16 $0 -1%
Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP? Sep 03 $16 $0 +0%
Solana above $140 on July 4? Jul 14 $16 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $48 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $46 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $24 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records