trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 20 | -24.3% | -31.5% | 25% | 5% | -11.2% |
| ≤30d | 20 | -24.3% | -31.5% | 25% | 5% | -11.2% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -24.3% | -31.5% | 25% | 5% | -11.2% |
| all | 20 | -24.3% | -31.5% | 25% | 5% | -11.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -31.5% | 5% | -11.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -38.1% | 5% | -19.7% |
| 15% | -44.0% | 0% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -49.5% | 0% | -34.6% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? | Jun 16 | $2 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | Jun 16 | $6 | $0 | +3% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 16 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | -32% |
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | -34% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 16 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -50% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 16 | $4 | −$2 | -38% |
| Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | -28% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 16 | $41 | +$9 | +23% |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri | Jun 16 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 15 | $3 | $0 | -16% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |