Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6f2a…e0d7 sports 381 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$94 (+1%) realized +$157 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%175W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$17
14 days+$641
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$238
crypto 3% +$73
other 3% −$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.2% -24.1% 50% 25% -4.7%
≤30d 83 +6.9% -3.3% 45% 43% -5.7%
≤90d 136 +1.6% -8.1% 43% 43% -6.0%
all 380 +0.8% -8.8% 46% 45% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 45% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 42% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 41% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 39% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$45 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses175 / 205
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions1
Markets (closed)380 / 381
History coverage276d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 31¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $100 +$134 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $98 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $59 −$59 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $95 −$94 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $70 +$124 +177%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $100 −$98 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 11 $91 −$89 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $91 +$90 +99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $100 −$98 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $91 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $104 +$138 +133%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $114 +$139 +122%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $66 −$65 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $99 +$132 +134%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $161 +$138 +86%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $88 −$87 -98%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $111 −$109 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $76 +$144 +188%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $66 +$60 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $62 +$54 +88%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $70 +$133 +188%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $67 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $90 +$107 +118%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $101 +$240 +237%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 07 $69 −$68 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $60 −$59 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $64 −$62 -98%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $100 +$57 +57%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $65 −$64 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $5 +$15 +344%
Libema Open, Qualification: Ella Seidel vs Greet Minnen Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū end in a draw? Jun 07 $34 +$97 +287%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $151 +$153 +102%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $86 −$85 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $81 +$48 +59%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $69 −$68 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 +$139 +272%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $61 +$80 +132%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $71 +$68 +95%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $56 +$54 +97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $31 +$53 +172%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $60 +$65 +109%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $37 +$22 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $64 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $234 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 48¢ $100 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 46¢ $98 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 51¢ $59 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 24¢ $61 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $99 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $95 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $194 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $70 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 17¢ $98 8d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 32¢ $100 8d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) BUY BetBoom Team 34¢ $91 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 SELL Under 99¢ $182 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 49¢ $91 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 35¢ $100 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $91 8d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S SELL G2 Ares 100¢ $241 8d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S BUY G2 Ares 42¢ $104 9d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group SELL Leo Team 100¢ $252 9d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group BUY Leo Team 44¢ $114 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Young Ninjas 62¢ $66 9d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $231 9d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $99 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $300 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $161 9d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 47¢ $88 10d
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) BUY B8 30¢ $111 10d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Oxuji Esports 38¢ $60 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 603 history records