Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f28…119b sports 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$357 (+4%) realized +$298 · open +$59
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$378
7 days−$401
14 days−$226
30 days+$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$114
sports 26% +$19
world 18% +$350
crypto 3% −$16
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -18.1% -25.9% 33% 15% -20.5%
≤30d 46 -8.0% -16.8% 41% 22% -7.7%
≤90d 46 -8.0% -16.8% 41% 22% -7.7%
all 46 -8.0% -16.8% 41% 22% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 22% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 20% -16.5%
15% -32.0% 15% -24.6%
20% -38.7% 11% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$32 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized+$298
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage17d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $117 $195 +$78 (+67%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 68¢ $195 $186 −$9 (-4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 36¢ 66¢ $83 $151 +$68 (+82%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 94¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $10 −$4 -36%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $155 −$155 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $125 −$69 -55%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 29 $77 −$26 -34%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $165 −$84 -51%
Will Panama be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FI Jun 28 $80 −$41 -51%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $200 +$74 +37%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $18 −$10 -52%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 3 Winner Jun 27 $200 +$12 +6%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $184 +$13 +7%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $47 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$36 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $23 −$15 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$9 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$33 +162%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? Jun 26 $29 −$19 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $60 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$7 -56%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $200 +$16 +8%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $114 +$10 +9%
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F Jun 26 $55 −$50 -90%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $155 −$80 -52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $200 −$128 -64%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $201 +$144 +72%
Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (+1.5) Jun 25 $8 −$6 -77%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $284 −$9 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $193 −$11 -6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $22 −$1 -5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 23? Jun 23 $68 −$35 -52%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 23 $126 −$6 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $232 +$13 +6%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $375 +$112 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,755 +$74 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $30 −$16 -53%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $80 −$21 -26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $125 +$51 +40%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $41 −$25 -61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $70 +$217 +312%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $125 +$9 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $223 +$12 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $178 +$102 +57%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $375 +$61 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 9m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $14 9m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $31 9m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $6 9m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $8 9m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $126 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 32¢ $7 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $10 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $2 8h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $6 8h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $5 8h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $1 8h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $17 8h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $65 8h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 40¢ $57 9h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 84¢ $125 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $40 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $6 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $13 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $83 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $37 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $83 13h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 20h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 37¢ $81 28h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $79 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.21 · official $541.27 (match) · 586 history records