Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f20…019e crypto 331 markets active 6d ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%177W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -43.9% -49.2% 21% 21% -45.2%
≤30d 101 -4.9% -13.9% 49% 48% -14.4%
≤90d 101 -4.9% -13.9% 49% 48% -14.4%
all 331 -0.7% -10.1% 53% 51% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 51% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 50% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 45% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 34% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses177 / 154
Open positions0
Markets (closed)331 / 331
History coverage147d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 331 Trades
no open positions (93 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.62 · official $7.62 (match) · 779 history records