Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f1f…b823 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$132 · open −$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day75.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$15
sports 20% −$126
other 8% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.8% -6.1% 57% 57% -8.3%
≤30d 7 +3.8% -6.1% 57% 57% -8.3%
≤90d 7 +3.8% -6.1% 57% 57% -8.3%
all 7 +3.8% -6.1% 57% 57% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 57% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 29% -17.1%
15% -23.3% 14% -25.1%
20% -30.8% 14% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$62 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$132
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day75.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $125 $122 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 31¢ 28¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Over 22¢ 21¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 17¢ 0¢ $121 $0 −$121 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $211 −$88 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $91 −$33 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$70 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $152 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $162 +$45 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $334 +$65 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $130 −$64 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.70 · official $191.71 (match) · 75 history records