Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f1e…8181 crypto 813 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+1%) realized +$126 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%240W / 568L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$38
sports 5% −$64
other 1% −$17
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.6% -28.2% 67% 50% -12.6%
≤30d 6 -20.6% -28.2% 67% 50% -12.6%
≤90d 671 -15.0% -23.1% 28% 27% -16.3%
all 808 -13.5% -21.7% 30% 29% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 29% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 27% -20.5%
15% -36.1% 25% -28.2%
20% -42.3% 22% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses240 / 568
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)808 / 813
History coverage92d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 808 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 66¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 32¢ $100 $52 −$48 (-48%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Yes 11¢ 28¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+159%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $195 +$86 +44%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $103 +$5 +5%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $28 +$4 +15%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $112 −$110 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 09 $20 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 09 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 09 $13 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 09 $2 +$8 +390%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 09 $44 −$37 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 09 $70 −$26 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 09 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 09 $2 +$12 +601%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$13 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 09 $4 +$24 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 09 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 09 $20 +$16 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 09 $69 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 09 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 09 $35 +$17 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 09 $8 +$5 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$16 +329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 09 $15 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 09 $35 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 09 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 09 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 09 $7 −$7 -93%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$21 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 09 $16 +$17 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 09 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 09 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 09 $9 +$20 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 09 $30 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 09 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 09 $5 +$4 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $281 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 73¢ $95 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $95 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $100 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $72 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 95¢ $27 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 24¢ $12 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 84¢ $24 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 38¢ $20 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 56¢ $51 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $28 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $30 6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $41 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $8 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.93 · official $152.03 (match) · 2835 history records