Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f1b…ab6e crypto 597 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$188 (-2%) realized −$188 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%322W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$219
14 days−$219
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$239
weather 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -0.5% -10.0% 67% 52% -17.0%
≤30d 225 -0.5% -10.0% 67% 52% -17.0%
≤90d 587 -2.8% -12.0% 54% 48% -12.0%
all 596 -2.8% -12.1% 54% 47% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 47% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 41% -20.4%
15% -28.2% 30% -28.1%
20% -35.2% 22% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses322 / 274
Open positions0
Markets (closed)596 / 597
History coverage102d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 596 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2869 history records