Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6f18…d8f5 sports 243 markets active 16h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$626 (+12%) realized +$571 · open +$55
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%131W / 90L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$234
7 days+$179
14 days+$255
30 days+$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$583
other 12% +$55
crypto 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +38.1% +24.9% 52% 52% +1.8%
≤30d 210 +15.0% +4.1% 60% 60% +2.6%
≤90d 221 +13.5% +2.7% 59% 59% +2.0%
all 221 +13.5% +2.7% 59% 59% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 59% +2.0%
10% -7.1% 59% -7.7%
15% -16.1% 57% -16.6%
20% -24.3% 45% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$461
Realized+$571
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses131 / 90
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions20
Markets (closed)221 / 243
History coverage32d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 93¢ $102 $137 +$35 (+34%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 100¢ $24 $36 +$12 (+49%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 68¢ $12 $21 +$9 (+71%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 75¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-11%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 21¢ 35¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+66%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 45¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+44%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 57¢ 54¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $55 +$45 +82%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 15 $8 +$17 +203%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $73 +$62 +84%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $21 +$29 +138%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $121 −$120 -100%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $130 −$129 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $18 +$5 +27%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $37 +$12 +32%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $43 −$42 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $52 +$22 +43%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $58 +$47 +80%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$28 -90%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $183 +$221 +121%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $154 +$117 +76%
Will Jalen Brunson score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $3 +$22 +733%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $17 +$8 +45%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $44 +$21 +48%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 +$32 +186%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $25 +$12 +48%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$48 +1900%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $14 +$11 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $31 +$19 +61%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $10 +$5 +49%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 11 $17 +$8 +48%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $36 +$36 +99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $10 +$5 +56%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $20 +$10 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 27h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 50¢ $23 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 50¢ $2 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $40 40h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $13 40h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 54¢ $19 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $16 40h
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Over 15¢ $8 41h
O/U 3.5 Rounds BUY Over 33¢ $8 41h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 42¢ $21 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 35¢ $9 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 48¢ $10 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $10 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $10 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $5 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 55¢ $6 41h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $14 41h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $3 41h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $2 41h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $4 41h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 69¢ $7 41h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $11 41h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 41h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $20 41h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $49 41h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 41h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $6 42h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 75¢ $12 42h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 75¢ $7 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.28 · official $481.30 · 656 history records