Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f17…cfd4 crypto 1419 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (213 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$527 (-16%) realized −$524 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate69%975W / 432L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day213.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$137
14 days−$157
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$112
sports 13% −$61
other 3% −$8
weather 2% +$23
politics 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (213 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 700 -4.0% -13.1% 55% 36% -15.5%
≤30d 1407 -0.2% -9.7% 69% 28% -13.9%
≤90d 1407 -0.2% -9.7% 69% 28% -13.9%
all 1407 -0.2% -9.7% 69% 28% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover213.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 28% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 22% -22.2%
15% -26.2% 18% -29.7%
20% -33.5% 15% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$524
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses975 / 432
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1407 / 1419
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day213.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 49¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+63%)
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Yulia Starodubtseva 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+63%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 57¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Francesca Jones 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Moez Echargui 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Nikola Bartunkova 35¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Raul Brancaccio 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +130%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -22%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +58%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 0m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 11m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $1 22m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 26m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 57¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 26¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui BUY Moez Echargui 18¢ $1 2h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 35¢ $1 2h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 49¢ $1 2h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 56¢ $1 2h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 31¢ $1 3h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 58¢ $1 3h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 61¢ $1 3h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Raul Brancaccio 25¢ $1 4h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 49¢ $1 4h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 39¢ $1 5h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 59¢ $1 5h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Janice Tjen 44¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.22 · official $18.22 (match) · 3500 history records