Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6f12…3f91 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$235 (-13%) realized −$234 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate66%27W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$240
sports 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 41 -3.0% -12.3% 66% 61% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 61% -24.2%
10% -20.7% 44% -31.4%
15% -28.3% 29% -38.1%
20% -35.3% 22% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$40 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$234
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses27 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage133d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 73¢ 72¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 16 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 16 $17 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 16 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 16 $26 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 16 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Feb 16 $11 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 16 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 15 $45 −$44 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 15 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Feb 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Feb 13 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Feb 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 12 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 12 $53 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 12 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 12 $47 +$13 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 12 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 12 $22 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 12 $9 +$9 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 12 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 12 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 12 $212 −$209 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 12 $74 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 12 $152 +$37 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 12 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 12 $133 +$23 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 12 $93 +$42 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 12 $61 +$35 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 12 $35 +$26 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 12 $26 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 12 $16 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $35 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $23 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $30 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $24 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $13 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $17 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $56 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $19 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $12 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $18 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $14 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $45 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $45 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $43 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $57 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $12 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $28 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $20 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.94 · official $143.94 (match) · 104 history records