Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:38:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f11…15b5 crypto 347 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$709 (-6%) realized −$709 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%133W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$207
14 days−$886
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$652
sports 12% −$349
other 1% −$33
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -17.7% -25.5% 35% 35% -24.2%
≤30d 133 -13.9% -22.1% 37% 37% -15.9%
≤90d 347 -15.3% -23.4% 38% 38% -17.5%
all 347 -15.3% -23.4% 38% 38% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 38% -17.5%
10% -30.7% 37% -25.4%
15% -37.4% 37% -32.6%
20% -43.5% 35% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$29 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$709
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses133 / 214
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)347 / 347
History coverage87d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 347 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $26 +$17 +66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$21 -95%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $89 −$88 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $30 +$23 +74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$77 +302%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $28 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $130 −$129 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$35 +84%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $44 +$73 +166%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $49 −$10 -20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$45 +272%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $89 +$38 +42%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 13 $36 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 13 $34 +$27 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $39 +$45 +116%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $13 −$12 -94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $46 +$33 +71%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $42 −$42 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$22 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$19 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $51 −$49 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $49 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $86 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 07 $99 −$96 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $54 +$38 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $70 +$34 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $36 −$35 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $50 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 52¢ $23 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $44 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $26 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $22 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $89 2d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 99¢ $53 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 85¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 85¢ $85 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 85¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 56¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 50¢ $28 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 20¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $130 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $93 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $76 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $41 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 823 history records