Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f10…563b weather 472 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$300 (-13%) realized −$328 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%47W / 415L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day66.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$217
14 days−$366
30 days−$402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$374
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-50.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -46.6% -51.7% 12% 10% -19.2%
≤30d 462 -45.5% -50.7% 10% 10% -24.6%
≤90d 462 -45.5% -50.7% 10% 10% -24.6%
all 462 -45.5% -50.7% 10% 10% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.7% 10% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -55.4% 9% -31.8%
15% -59.7% 9% -38.4%
20% -63.7% 8% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$3 · ×6.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses47 / 415
Open positions10
Markets (closed)462 / 472
History coverage18d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day66.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 462 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $25 $68 +$43 (+171%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 28¢ $6 $18 +$12 (+181%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+68%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+128%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 401 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$34 +992%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +462%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $15 +$55 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$18 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $73 +$79 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$9 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$11 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $14 +$26 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes 10¢ $2 52m
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $16 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $11 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.71 · official $100.67 (match) · 1255 history records