Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6F 0x6f0f…98dc crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+6%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate69%46W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$15
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.7% -23.8% 67% 27% -7.0%
≤30d 67 -7.3% -16.1% 69% 28% -8.0%
≤90d 67 -7.3% -16.1% 69% 28% -8.0%
all 67 -7.3% -16.1% 69% 28% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 28% -8.0%
10% -24.1% 24% -16.8%
15% -31.5% 15% -24.9%
20% -38.2% 10% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses46 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage29d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $32 +$31 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 04 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 31 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 31 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 31 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 31 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 31 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 31 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 28 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 28 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 28 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 28 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $26 +$11 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on June 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 18d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 5? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records