Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f08…b916 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$41
sports 20% −$20
politics 11% −$7
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage132d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $668 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $584 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $626 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $316 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $287 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $285 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $220 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $300 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $732 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $330 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $408 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $415 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $132 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $293 $0 +0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $297 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $801 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $484 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $285 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $568 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $536 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 1h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 5h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 10h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 15h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 17h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 19h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 19h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 21h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 22h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 24h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 29h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 30h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 33h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 34h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 35h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 38h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 39h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 44h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 46h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 47h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1391 history records