Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f06…f360 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$123 (-4%) realized −$129 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$325
14 days+$126
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$65
other 43% −$93
tech 2% +$80
politics 2% +$38
world 2% +$4
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +70.1% +53.9% 78% 78% +40.7%
≤30d 21 +9.4% -1.1% 48% 48% -15.1%
≤90d 21 +9.4% -1.1% 48% 48% -15.1%
all 46 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 48% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 48% -11.3%
10% -18.5% 43% -19.8%
15% -26.4% 39% -27.5%
20% -33.6% 28% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$39 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage597d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$64 +79%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $26 +$102 +398%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$2 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $108 +$12 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $146 +$66 +45%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 12 $26 −$7 -27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $72 +$80 +112%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $81 +$21 +26%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $178 −$119 -67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $151 −$78 -52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 $0 -1%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $101 +$75 +74%
Clippers vs. Kings Feb 10 $20 +$11 +56%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 10 $27 +$13 +48%
Rockets vs. Hawks Feb 10 $30 +$19 +64%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 30 $20 −$16 -82%
Clippers vs. Jazz Jan 28 $90 +$40 +45%
Nets vs. Clippers Jan 26 $90 +$27 +30%
Clippers vs. Wizards Jan 20 $40 +$15 +37%
Wizards vs. Clippers Jan 15 $63 +$12 +19%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 14 $60 +$4 +6%
Clippers vs. Nets Jan 10 $38 +$22 +56%
Nuggets vs. Thunder May 18 $30 −$8 -26%
Clippers vs. Nuggets May 04 $49 −$25 -51%
Nuggets vs. Clippers May 02 $30 −$26 -87%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Apr 25 $100 +$54 +54%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Apr 22 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16? Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Celtics vs. Magic Apr 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 07 $20 +$34 +170%
Kings vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $62 +$38 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY $21 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $51 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND SELL 94¢ $127 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 18¢ $26 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $29 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $108 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN SELL $19 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY $26 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 8d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 100¢ $152 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $102 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $81 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 22¢ $59 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 10¢ $23 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 21¢ $50 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 37¢ $15 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 31¢ $35 17d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $81 18d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 18d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 18d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.18 · official $226.18 · 169 history records