Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6efd…ad81 crypto 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 315d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$20 (+3%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$95
14 days+$95
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$43
other 18% +$60
sports 18% +$2
politics 16% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +32.6% +19.9% 67% 67% +13.0%
≤30d 5 +21.1% +9.6% 80% 40% +6.5%
≤90d 5 +21.1% +9.6% 80% 40% +6.5%
all 6 +33.1% +20.4% 83% 50% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.4% 50% +7.5%
10% +8.9% 50% -2.8%
15% -1.6% 50% -12.2%
20% -11.3% 50% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.18 per $1 lost it wins $6.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage315d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $171 −$21 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $107 +$57 +53%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $105 +$60 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? May 25 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 5AM ET Aug 13 $9 +$8 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $107 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $32 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $32 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $164 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $107 18m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $165 19m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $105 1h
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 94¢ $104 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 5AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 314d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 5AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 314d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 5AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 314d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 5AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 314d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 5AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 314d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 5AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 314d
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 314d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records