Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6efb…e90f other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 55L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$40
other 19% −$3
politics 12% −$8
sports 2% +$102
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.1% 14% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 58 -0.4% -9.8% 21% 14% -9.5%
all 75 +5.9% -4.2% 27% 17% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 17% -9.3%
10% -13.4% 17% -18.0%
15% -21.7% 17% -25.9%
20% -29.4% 13% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 55
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage605d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $215 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $162 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $189 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $174 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $179 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $175 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $184 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $173 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $184 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $185 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $189 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $194 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $178 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $376 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $176 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $180 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $10 +$8 +72%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $15 +$7 +50%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $15 +$12 +76%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $18 +$2 +10%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $11 +$12 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 33m
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 23h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $52 38h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 43h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $7 3d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $38 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 23d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 24d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $37 24d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $37 24d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $26 25d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $27 26d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $23 29d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $23 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $34 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 30d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 31d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.50 · official $153.50 (match) · 282 history records