Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6E
0x6efa…2947
other · 72 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$26 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open −$46
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$234
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses16 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)58 / 72
History coverage107d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 14 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$45
14 days+$20
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 13¢ 33¢ $13 $33 +$20 (+150%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 45¢ 30¢ $45 $30 −$16 (-34%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+38%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 8¢ 20¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+152%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $17 $11 −$5 (-32%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $17 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 39¢ 6¢ $39 $6 −$34 (-86%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $17 $5 −$11 (-68%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $15 $4 −$10 (-70%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $22 −$6 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $17 +$25 +145%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $28 +$72 +255%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ap Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 19? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ap Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 19? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 19? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 1? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 31? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $28 +$5 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$3 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$17 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$20 +206%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 +$8 +149%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $16 +$13 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 +$50 +1645%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $11 +$2 +17%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $11 +$7 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 19? May 26 $1 +$2 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 19? May 26 $1 +$4 +369%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 86% +$16
weather 7% −$16
crypto 6% −$30
sports 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 16h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 16h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 16h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 23h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $38 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 7d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 7d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -70.7% -73.5% 12% 12% -26.7%
≤30d 52 +21.2% +9.7% 29% 29% +0.6%
≤90d 57 +12.5% +1.8% 28% 26% -7.2%
all 58 +10.5% +0.0% 28% 26% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 26% -7.4%
10% -9.6% 21% -16.3%
15% -18.3% 21% -24.4%
20% -26.3% 21% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.80 · official $234.50 (match) · 226 history records