Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ef6…9b93 sports 634 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$947 (-4%) realized −$941 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%330W / 289L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$262est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$323
14 days+$226
30 days−$1,302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$861
other 7% −$353
world 0% −$25
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +9.5% -0.9% 51% 51% +24.2%
≤30d 420 +3.8% -6.1% 52% 52% -26.4%
≤90d 619 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 53% -14.8%
all 619 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 53% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 53% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 51% -23.0%
15% -23.8% 46% -30.4%
20% -31.3% 39% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$33 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$941
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses330 / 289
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$262
Open positions15
Markets (closed)619 / 634
History coverage48d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Linda Noskova 83¢ 80¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 52¢ 34¢ $32 $21 −$11 (-34%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Julia Grabher 71¢ 100¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+41%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 36¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 50¢ 50¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 56¢ 60¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 56¢ 66¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+17%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Darya Astakhova 63¢ 62¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Noemi Basiletti 80¢ 38¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-52%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Zsombor Piros 13¢ 52¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+300%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 62¢ 81¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+31%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Daniel Galan 77¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 31¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Chloe Paquet 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $81 −$78 -96%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $34 −$25 -72%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 +$4 +54%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$5 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 +$38 +152%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $2 +$4 +197%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $8 −$3 -40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 +$42 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $20 −$15 -77%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +79%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $17 +$11 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $8 +$8 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $13 +$12 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $12 +$4 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $93 +$227 +245%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $1 +$2 +172%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $6 −$1 -25%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $14 +$13 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $21 +$12 +56%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $3 +$1 +43%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $2 +$1 +79%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 +$34 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $76 +$19 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$40 +238%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $18 +$3 +19%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 36¢ $1 2m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 50¢ $4 9m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 57¢ $7 10m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $4 10m
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 13¢ $1 12m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $4 16m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $4 18m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 83¢ $24 19m
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ $6 20m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 63¢ $7 21m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $13 41m
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Chloe Paquet 22¢ $1 52m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 56¢ $9 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $4 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $9 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 49¢ $4 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 77¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 52¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $7 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 55¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $7 1h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ $3 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 71¢ $13 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 62¢ $4 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 45¢ $2 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ $3 6h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $3 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $2 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.46 · official $154.04 · 1887 history records