Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ef5…530b world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$6
other 23% −$1
politics 12% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 11 +2.6% -7.2% 27% 18% -8.2%
≤90d 11 +2.6% -7.2% 27% 18% -8.2%
all 32 +1.9% -7.8% 25% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 9% -9.0%
10% -16.6% 6% -17.7%
15% -24.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage291d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 −$2 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $9 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $8 +$2 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $55 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $59 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $44 +$5 +12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $45 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $1 $0 +35%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $33 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 15 $3 $0 -4%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Sep 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $3 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $46 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $9 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $42 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $21 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $1 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $13 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $8 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $1 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $15 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $14 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $41 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $38 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $4 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $42 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records