Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ef4…9c19 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$65 (-9%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$51
crypto 12% $0
politics 9% −$11
sports 1% $0
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -3.8% -12.9% 60% 0% -19.3%
all 13 -7.3% -16.1% 31% 0% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -17.5%
10% -24.1% 0% -25.4%
15% -31.5% 0% -32.6%
20% -38.2% 0% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage120d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $126 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 06 $260 −$50 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 23? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 26? Apr 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 03 $7 −$2 -33%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $146 −$1 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $25 −$5 -20%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $28 −$6 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $126 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $126 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $24 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $33 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $29 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $125 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records