Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6ef4…557b other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 707d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,552 (-19%) realized −$3,540 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$414per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,088now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$145
14 days+$145
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$2,471
other 22% −$601
world 17% −$202
crypto 13% −$333
sports 2% +$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +59.2% +44.0% 71% 71% -2.3%
≤30d 7 +59.2% +44.0% 71% 71% -2.3%
≤90d 7 +59.2% +44.0% 71% 71% -2.3%
all 37 -8.2% -16.9% 57% 41% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 41% -27.8%
10% -24.9% 24% -34.7%
15% -32.1% 16% -41.0%
20% -38.8% 8% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$510) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$331 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

707d coverage
Net worth$1,088
Realized−$3,540
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)37 / 44
History coverage707d
Avg bet$414
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $352 +$97 +28%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$194 +474%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $201 +$47 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$210 +42%
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA before April? Jan 22 $19 −$9 -47%
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? Jan 22 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 22 $500 +$43 +9%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26? Jan 13 $120 −$120 -100%
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? Jan 03 $20 +$13 +67%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Jan 03 $200 +$22 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Jan 03 $593 +$89 +15%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Jan 03 $2,437 +$260 +11%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Dec 24 $178 +$21 +12%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Nov 26 $751 +$42 +6%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? Nov 21 $471 −$471 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 15 $510 −$510 -100%
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? Nov 11 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $4,036 −$2,615 -65%
Another Iran strike on Israel in October? Nov 05 $100 +$9 +9%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $1,005 −$134 -13%
Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August? Aug 25 $20 −$20 -100%
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 13 $233 −$201 -86%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 11 $700 +$134 +19%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 06 $779 +$49 +6%
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 06 $587 −$57 -10%
Iran military response by Sunday? Aug 06 $10 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $200 −$10 -5%
Biden drops out in July? Jul 22 $547 +$237 +43%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jul 22 $420 +$249 +59%
Will Trump say "jew" during RNC speech? Jul 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump say "unity" during RNC speech? Jul 19 $20 +$5 +24%
Will England win the 2024 Euros? Jul 18 $319 −$319 -100%
Euro Finals: Spain vs. England Jul 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $301 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 5d
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA before April? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 511d
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26? BUY Yes 60¢ $91 519d
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA before April? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 519d
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26? BUY Yes 60¢ $26 519d
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA before April? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 519d
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 519d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY No 72¢ $199 539d
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? SELL No 100¢ $199 539d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? BUY No 87¢ $593 540d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? BUY No 90¢ $200 552d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? BUY No 96¢ $651 569d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? BUY No 88¢ $100 569d
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? BUY No 7¢ $34 576d
Will Biden finish his term? BUY Yes 92¢ $500 583d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,087.90 · official $1,087.98 (match) · 171 history records