Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:28:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ef3…df6d crypto 298 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2086 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,072 (+6%) realized +$1,069 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate54%159W / 138L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2086.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2086 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 1% -8.8%
≤30d 297 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 1% -8.8%
≤90d 297 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 1% -8.8%
all 297 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 1% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2086.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 1% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 1% -17.6%
15% -29.2% 1% -25.5%
20% -36.1% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$1,069
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses159 / 138
Open positions1
Markets (closed)297 / 298
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2086.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 0¢ 96¢ $0 $56 +$56 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 0¢ 4¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $71 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $78 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $125 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $71 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $71 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $191 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $18 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $36 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $18 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $36 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.80 · official $58.80 (match) · 3500 history records