Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6ef2…24ab world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$56 (+4%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate62%32W / 20L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$11
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$11
other 26% +$3
sports 11% +$2
politics 7% +$40
crypto 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 27 +2.4% -7.4% 48% 4% -8.4%
≤90d 27 +2.4% -7.4% 48% 4% -8.4%
all 52 +5.4% -4.6% 62% 10% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 10% -6.2%
10% -13.7% 8% -15.1%
15% -22.1% 6% -23.3%
20% -29.7% 6% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.5 per $1 lost it wins $6.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses32 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage490d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $61 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $93 +$2 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $55 +$3 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $8 +$4 +57%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 +$2 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $20 $0 -2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $1 $0 -7%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday? Mar 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Israel wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 13 $43 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $1 $0 -17%
Will Trump meet with either Tate brother by next Sunday? Mar 11 $52 $0 +1%
Will Trump say 'Mexico' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $5 +$7 +156%
Will Trump say 'Peace' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $31 +$9 +30%
Detroit Mercy vs. Northern Kentucky Mar 04 $35 $0 +0%
Auburn vs. Texas A&M Mar 04 $36 −$1 -2%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 04 $32 +$3 +10%
Presbyterian College vs. UNC Asheville Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
The Citadel vs. Furman Mar 04 $29 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $51 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $51 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $5 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $45 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $50 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $51 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $51 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $4 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $47 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $49 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records