Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ef1…5710 world 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate43%38W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$8
other 25% $0
sports 15% −$15
politics 13% +$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.1% -5.8% 75% 25% -6.1%
≤30d 27 +0.0% -9.5% 52% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 75 +25.8% +13.8% 39% 4% -9.3%
all 89 +19.6% +8.2% 43% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 6% -9.7%
10% -2.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -11.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -20.3% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses38 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)89 / 92
History coverage540d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 73¢ 70¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $30 +$5 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $37 +$1 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $27 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $48 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$7 -57%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $45 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $24 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $86 +$6 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $47 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $68 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $22 −$3 -14%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 28 $9 +$1 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $13 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $40 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $11 +$1 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $77 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $151 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 07 $32 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 07 $2 $0 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos May 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $35 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $30 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $15 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $27 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $10 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $24 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $13 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $20 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $9 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $8 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $8 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $8 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $16 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $11 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $5 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $7 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.26 · official $0.00 · 368 history records