Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6eee…d2a1 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$137 (+18%) realized +$193 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -17.2% -25.1% 57% 50% +14.0%
≤30d 14 -17.2% -25.1% 57% 50% +14.0%
≤90d 14 -17.2% -25.1% 57% 50% +14.0%
all 14 -17.2% -25.1% 57% 50% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 50% +14.0%
10% -32.3% 36% +3.0%
15% -38.8% 36% -6.9%
20% -44.8% 14% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$13 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$193
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 82¢ 58¢ $198 $141 −$57 (-29%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $71 +$28 +39%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $37 +$17 +47%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$50 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $34 +$6 +17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $62 +$84 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $60 +$3 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 +$22 +57%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $98 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 1h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $7 8h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $7 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 11h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 95¢ $55 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $37 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $34 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 41h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 41h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 42h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $62 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $63 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $60 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $38 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.28 · official $168.28 (match) · 25 history records