Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6E 0x6ee9…3cf4 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%28W / 21L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,057now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$14
14 days+$12
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$28
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 -24.9% -32.0% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 21 -47.5% -52.5% 52% 0% -9.6%
all 49 -38.6% -44.4% 57% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -49.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -54.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -59.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,061) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$1,057
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses28 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage199d
Avg bet$437
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,053 $1,052 −$1 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,051 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,048 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,046 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,044 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,043 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,041 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,039 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 19? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 10? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1? May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 21? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on March 26? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on March 19? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 13? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 2 Feb 24 $1,121 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 22? Feb 22 $1,118 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 2 Feb 22 $1,115 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Feb 21 $1,112 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $1,106 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 18? Feb 18 $1,102 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $1,098 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 16? Feb 17 $1,094 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on February 15? Feb 15 $1,087 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 14 Feb 15 $1,083 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 13 Feb 14 $1,079 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,070 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 11 Feb 12 $1,061 +$7 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$480 on the final day of trading of th Feb 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on February 10? Feb 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on February 2? Feb 02 $0 $0 -100%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $215 in January? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 25? Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on December 24 Dec 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,053 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,051 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,048 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,044 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,043 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,041 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,039 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 20d
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 26d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 29d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 38d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 41d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1? BUY No 0¢ $2 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 57d
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri BUY No 100¢ $3 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? BUY No 0¢ $2 66d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 71d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 74d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on March 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 83d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on March 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 105d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $1,121 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,118 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $1,115 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,056.67 · official $1,056.67 (match) · 90 history records