Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:13:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6E 0x6ee5…ae90 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+3%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 50% -4.2%
≤30d 6 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 50% -4.2%
≤90d 6 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 50% -4.2%
all 6 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 50% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 50% -4.2%
10% -15.5% 33% -13.3%
15% -23.7% 17% -21.7%
20% -31.2% 17% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 83¢ 83¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $12 +$2 +17%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $31 −$4 -14%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 −$3 -72%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $23 +$6 +28%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $40 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $27 2h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $30 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $76 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $29 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $34 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.59 · official $132.59 (match) · 42 history records