Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6ee4…8c98 other 330 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,557 (-7%) realized −$4,497 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%145W / 173L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$2,240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$647
7 days−$618
14 days−$618
30 days−$754
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$3,729
sports 14% −$505
crypto 2% −$757
world 1% +$395
politics 1% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 55% -19.6%
≤30d 24 -1.8% -11.2% 54% 54% -21.2%
≤90d 80 -12.5% -20.8% 45% 44% -24.0%
all 318 -5.5% -14.5% 46% 45% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 45% -16.4%
10% -22.7% 44% -24.4%
15% -30.2% 40% -31.7%
20% -37.0% 34% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$170 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$2,240
Realized−$4,497
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses145 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions12
Markets (closed)318 / 330
History coverage243d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 53¢ 54¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $200 $155 −$45 (-23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 37¢ 34¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $304 −$304 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $71 +$81 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $122 +$164 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $605 +$252 +42%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$262 +129%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $212 +$92 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $303 −$303 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $425 −$425 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$180 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $304 −$304 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$334 +109%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $509 −$509 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$50 +50%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $506 +$356 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $304 +$222 +73%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $212 +$132 +62%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $403 +$152 +38%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 07 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $77 +$25 +32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $806 −$806 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 04 $152 +$341 +224%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $811 +$33 +4%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Apr 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $200 +$165 +83%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 28 $200 +$194 +97%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $200 −$94 -47%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $500 +$316 +63%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $406 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $101 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 53¢ $203 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $102 24h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $71 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $122 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $304 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $203 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $202 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $212 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $203 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $101 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $101 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,239.89 · official $2,239.92 (match) · 948 history records