Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6ee3…01ab sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$167 (+37%) realized +$296 · open −$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$63
other 47% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +30.6% +18.2% 70% 70% +48.7%
≤30d 10 +30.6% +18.2% 70% 70% +48.7%
≤90d 10 +30.6% +18.2% 70% 70% +48.7%
all 10 +30.6% +18.2% 70% 70% +48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.2% 70% +48.7%
10% +6.9% 70% +34.5%
15% -3.4% 60% +21.5%
20% -12.9% 50% +9.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$8 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.71 per $1 lost it wins $7.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$296
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 28¢ $150 $64 −$86 (-57%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 41¢ 10¢ $21 $5 −$16 (-74%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 65¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $27 +$18 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $19 +$32 +164%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $28 +$27 +97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $69 +$33 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$53 +121%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $24 +$20 +85%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$5 +24%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $22 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $27 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $152 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 37¢ $19 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $27 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $69 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 50¢ $28 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 17h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $24 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $19 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $14 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.22 · official $69.24 (match) · 24 history records