Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ee1…c9a9 sports 11 markets active 7h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$201 (-34%) realized −$202 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -49.4% -54.2% 30% 30% -44.2%
≤30d 10 -49.4% -54.2% 30% 30% -44.2%
≤90d 10 -49.4% -54.2% 30% 30% -44.2%
all 10 -49.4% -54.2% 30% 30% -44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.2% 30% -44.2%
10% -58.6% 30% -49.5%
15% -62.6% 30% -54.4%
20% -66.3% 20% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$48 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$202
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 31¢ 32¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $77 −$76 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$26 +51%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$56 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$47 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $77 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 80¢ $76 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $8 33h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 33h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 33h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 33h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $51 33h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $48 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.81 · official $50.81 (match) · 16 history records